A Digital Deja Vu

SCI-FI MEETS REALITY 

From the womb that was a nondescript lab nestled inside one of a number of buildings inside the campus of the University of California in Los Angeles some 40 years ago, the Internet was born. Today, it is likened to a neural-like brain that virtually envelopes the entire planet and one that features in the daily lives of over 1.5-billion human beings. It is so ubiquitous that it’s easy for many to take it for granted, just as they do turning on their radio or TV. But unlike these other communication channels, it is still very much a work in progress.

Who controls it? What are the inertial forces that are shaping it today? How big has it grown? Will sci-fi meet reality at some point in the near future if the Internet evolves a mind of its own to a stage where it is self-aware of itself? This is the brave new world of the Internet and as far as we can notice these changes, it appears to be surprising us all the time by reinventing itself each year. 

MASTERS OF THE INTERNET UNIVERSE 

Who controls the Internet? Are countries where the Internet is used prevalently equal to each other online or is there something more to it than meets the eye? It is not a simple issue to define. Not many people who use it may know this but the Internet is regulated by a nonprofit organisation. Yes, an NGO that goes by the name of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and numbers (ICANN), based in Marina Del Rey, California. 

The Internet is an organic-like creature as it is a global system of interconnected computer networks that use a standardised Internet Protocol Suite (TCP/IP). It is a ‘network of networks’ that consists of millions of private and public, academic, business, and government networks of both local and global scope. This network is linked together by a hodgepodge of copper wires, fiber-optic cables, and satellite and wireless connections, along with other related technologies. But for this network to work properly, it needs to be regulated.

This is where ICANN steps in. Its responsibility is to regulate online addresses known as domain names like .com, .net, .org and so forth all of which flow though a set of four layers each of which solves a set of problems involving transmission of data. But even while ICANN operates as a nonprofit, it still reports to the US government’s Department of Commerce (DoC) whose role is to oversee the domain name process handled by ICANN.

When it comes to the Internet, the DoC’s role differs from all other government regulating bodies in the world. Once a check has been done by it, implementation is executed by VeriSign, a private company based in Mountain View, California. VeriSign manages the root name database, which contains the full official list of all recognised suffixes or the Domain Name System. Taken together the triad of ICANN, the US DoC and VeriSign effectively means that the US has tremendous leverage over the global coordination of the Internet. Theoretically, this triumvirate or ‘masters of the Internet universe’ can and do decide who is on it and who isn’t. 

MAKING SENSE OF SHEER NUMBERS 

That the internet is so immensely vast is not questioned anymore. In 2005, Google estimated that the Internet contained some 5 million terabytes of data. Imagine the scale of this term. One single terabyte equals 1,000,000,000,000 bytes expressed as 1000⁴ or 10¹² bytes. Five million terabytes is exceedingly far more in numbers than the 1-gigabyte or 1,000,000,000 bytes (1000³, 10⁹) needed to account for each one of Earth’s 4.5 billion annual trips that scientists say it has taken to orbit our sun. What’s even more astounding is that, in July 2008, Google announced that its systems had registered and indexed over trillion (one million million; 10¹²) unique web pages. The Internet today is an organised system of truly galactic proportions in miniature.

10¹² is by any measure, a mind-boggling number to digest. But there’s even more coming! According to Google, several billion web pages are added each day. Yes, each day! And in the few seconds it has taken you to read this brief paragraph, the total number has increased by another 700,000 web pages. Ok, keep reading.

Today, the Internet is exploding. It is growing by about 50% annually, with video and music streaming rising fastest even as its share of total pie is still small. In terms of traffic, however, Web applications consist of a larger slice of the pie at 45% of the total followed by P2P (peer-to-per file sharing) clocking in at 25%, both in 2008. During that same period, email applications consisted of only around 6% of the pie (see chart below) but of the 210 billion emails that were estimated to have been sent daily that year alone, 78% consisted of nothing more than just spam.

These numbers are but a sneak preview of the whole canvass and might represent a smaller percentage of what is already out there. Some estimates suggest that there could be hundreds of times more information stored on the Internet than what Google and all other search engine providers have indexed thus far. Then of course, there are also a billion or so people around the world who use mobile phones to visit cyberspace as well, making them as much a part of the global (and local) online community as someone surfing through it using a desktop or laptop appliance at home, the office or even a cybercafé.

What does this mean for nonprofit organisations operating in New Zealand or those elsewhere that have a website? More importantly, what does it mean for those who don’t? For some insight, visit the website of Convergent Digital Solutions and learn about what it means for nonprofits to empower themselves with Web 2.0 solutions that work and also how the Power of the Nth may be supplanting the importance of search engine optimisation today in light of the increasing size, complexity and possible fragmentation that the Internet may encounter in the not so distant future. 

CHANGING FACE OF THE LANDSCAPE

The importance of the Internet in everyone’s daily lives is better appreciated in its rising usage by people everywhere. In terms of use, the two charts you see below (Number of Internet Users in 2002 and 2008, respectively), illustrate how fast it has been growing since the start of this millennium.

The sample used in creating these two charts consists of only 7 countries. Small as it may seem, they together represent some of the largest population groups residing in different regions across the globe. As a result, this makes the sample relevant just by scale of their individual and collective numbers.

 In 2002, the number of internet users in the United States was 167.2-million, or approximately 15% of the world’s total internet users at that point in time. Its ranking was followed by Japan (61-million); China (45.8-million); Germany (35.2-million); the UK (29-million); Brazil (13.8-million); and, India (7-million).

Jumping forward six years to 2008 we see that the landscape has changed dramatically in terms of: 1) the change in percentage of the same populations sampled using the Internet; and, 2) its number as a percentage compared with the world’s total number of Internet users, ranked as follows: 

China: 253-million users | 17% of total World

U.S.: 220-million users | 15% of total World

Japan: 94-million users | 6.4% of total World

Brazil: 67.5-million users | 5.2% of total World

India: 60-million users | 3.6% of total World

Germany: 52.5-million users | 3.4% of total World

U.K.: 43.2-million users | 2.9% of total World 

What do these numbers mean to us today? First, the Internet, its usage, and creation of content and information will continue to grow rapidly and rabidly. Second, by 2012, it is estimated that Asian web surfers will outnumber countries in all other regions and become the largest group online. Third, tomorrow’s Internet will likely be dominated by a mixture of Mandarin, Hindi, English, Portuguese and possibly, Russian languages. That being the case, it will be divided along language lines. Fourth, if the US government does not release it Gordian grip over the Internet and allow more governments worldwide to get involved regulating it, the Internet will likely break up into chunks defined along major language lines.

Another consequence is that Governments around the world with substantial populations to manage may decide to set up their own root directories of domain names, held on their own servers, computers and independent of the existing US-based directory. This would give these authorities control over which sites their citizens access, thereby giving them the power to isolate them largely from the rest of the ‘network of networks’ that we enjoy using today. The force that is language contains power to change this demographic and, as a result, will accelerate global fragmentation of the Internet and the people then who use it. 

THE TOWER OF BABEL 

A possible break-up of the Internet along language lines in the near future could see the appearance of domain names that are not recognised by the rest of the ‘network of networks’. If servers or routers aren’t set up to recognise the unique characters of these addresses, the domain names will not be readily accessible to others from all parts of the world.

Today, the Internet is the only network of significant size and importance. It’s what practically runs systems around the world – economic, financial, commercial, security, education, travel, communications and much more. That is because a common computer language has proved to be the key to its phenomenal success. But another form of language – the human language, could eventually trigger its fragmentation into several separate regional internets: one part controlled by the US, one by China, another by Japan, India, Brazil and so on.

If and when that time ever descends upon us, it will be the story of the Tower of Babel happening all over again – a digital deja vu!!

“And the whole earth was of one language, and of one speech. And it came to pass, as they journeyed from the east, that they found a plain in the land of Shinar; and they dwelt there. And they said one to another, Go to, let us make brick, and burn them thoroughly. And they had brick for stone, and slime had they for mortar. And they said, Go to, let us build us a city and a tower, whose top may reach unto heaven; and let us make us a name, lest we be scattered abroad upon the face of the whole earth. And the Lord came down to see the city and the tower, which the children built. And the Lord said, Behold, the people is one, and they have all one language; and this they begin to do; and now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do. Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another’s speech. So the Lord scattered them abroad from thence upon the face of all the earth: and they left off to build the city. Therefore is the name of it called Babel; because the Lord did there confound the language of all the earth: and from thence did the Lord scatter them abroad upon the face of all the earth.”

From Genesis 11:1-9 (King James Version)

To learn more about what the author of this blog and Convergent Digital Solutions Ltd., do for nonprofits, please click on this link.

The list of NGOs that Karl Quirino & Associates and his company in New Zealand provide service to include: Animal rescue and welfare organisations, Blood Banks, Children’s Clubs, Clothing Distribution Centres, Community Learning Centres, Community Volunteer Fire Departments, Community Volunteer Search/Rescue Groups, Community Volunteer EMS Departments, Community Counseling Centres, Community Support Groups, Cultural Organisations, Crisis Support Organisations, Disaster Relief Organisations, Educational and Literacy Organisations, Food Banks, Food Distribution Organisations, Legal Services for Charities, Health and Medical Support Groups, Homeowners’ Associations and Groups, Humane/Animal Groups, Maori Organisations, Non-Profit Schools, Organ Donation Organisations, Pacific Islands and Other Ethnic Organisations, Parent/Teacher Associations or Organisations, School Extracurricular Groups and Fundraisers, Scouting Organisations and Groups, Shelters For Homeless and the Disadvantaged, Social Service Charity Organisations, Teachers’ Organisations, Treatment Centres or Support, Victims’ Support Groups, Volunteer Fire and EMS Services and Youth Sports Organisations.